One of my long term readers decided to yank my chain a little yesterday by facetiously asking what this week’s expected move (EM) should have been for the SPX. Looking at the outlier moves we’ve seen lately it’s easy to assume that EM is a silly antiquated concept that should at best be ignored. Well I’m not at all sorry to say – you would be horribly wrong.
Welcome to the fourth most bearish week of the year, at least statistically speaking over the past 70 years. Seasonal bias has been touch and go over the past few years but it didn’t take a crystal ball to suspect that we’d be seeing some sort of correction during the onset of summer, and in particular after a record snap back rally that propelled us 1000 SPX handles in less than three months.
If you recall my Monday post then you probably remember that week #24 historically closes flat but can produce quick wipeouts typical to what we see in low participation summer tape. And just looking at my trusted Zero indicator signal yesterday made it crystal clear that the bots were running the session. Instead of relying on complex indicators or silly wave counts let’s instead look at what price is telling us.
If you’ve been following implied volatility as long as I have then you know that backwardation is incredibly uncommon in the VIX futures curve. For the uninitiated amongst you, a futures curve or futures term structure is produced by drawing a graph comprised of a time window snapshot of two or more futures contracts of an underlying asset, e.g. crude, gold, pork-bellies, or in this case the VIX.
I’m still split on whether I prefer winter over summer. Sure, summer brings you hot temperatures and pretty girls prancing around in skimpy skirts (and now Luis Vuitton face masks). But at the same time it’s the worst season by far for any financial analyst or blogger. Winter on the other hand equals earnings season with a bullish bias, the Santa Rally, holidays full of delicious goodies, plus it promises you skiing in powder filled alpine resorts. What’s not to like? Yes, I know – it’s so bloody cold!
All the civic chaos and social brinksmanship notwithstanding U.S. equities have brazenly continued to march higher and higher since the activation of the riot brigade. Much to the chagrin of a legion of political arsonists who would love nothing more than to see our entire nation go up in flames. Continue reading
A day or two ago I was cruising around on reddit as I am subscribed to a few hobby related groups as well as some related to crypto currencies. To be honest I haven’t been dabbling much in crypto since early last year but it’s always good to keep one’s ear to the ground, as they say.
I have always refrained from commenting about politics as there are a myriad of sources out there plus I generally deem it to be counter productive to our mission at hand. Which of course is to succeed as traders in the financial markets – period. As such today will be no exception. But watching events in Minneapolis and other U.S. cities unfold over the weekend I could not help but feel a growing sense of surrealism above anything else.
If there was ever a valuable lesson to be learned about the utility of the mainstream media in the context of trading the financial markets, then the global Corona train wreck will undoubtedly be recognized by future generations of traders as a textbook example.
In German we have an expression: ‘Vom Regen in die Traufe’, which loosely translates as ‘from the frying pan into the fire’ – you get the idea. Looking at the insanity we just left behind and exchanged for a prolonged sideways churn across almost every market vertical I’d say either expression applies.