When it comes to the financial markets nothing ever moves in a straight line. For one that would be way too easy and if you’re looking for easy then I recommend you find yourself a hobby instead. That is probably one of the most difficult lessons to learn for fledgling traders as our minds are linear and short term oriented by nature while participation in the financial markets requires the exact opposite: non-linear long term oriented thinking.
I promised you impending drama on Monday and Ms. Market decided to ship out a whopper via next-day delivery. Unlike many of the muppets who pride themselves to be market analysts I am among the few who admit to have zero prophetic abilities. But frankly you didn’t have to be Cassandra to recognize the divergences that had been accumulating right in front of our eyes.
Another flat week in stocks with crypto crosses shooting toward the moon. The main event on everyone’s radar of course were the congressional hedge fund hearings during which we learned that the entire financial industry was squarely built upon the premise of uplifting retail investors plus each future stock purchase would now qualify for a free copy of the King James bible.
It’s a short trading week and on average they do tend to be a bit sleepy due to a lack in participation. This was evidenced by the reduced weekly trading range stats I posted on Monday. However the gyrations we’ve seen thus far are tantamount to running in circles, which potentially opens up some interesting low probability profit opportunities for us.
Implied volatility has been dropping faster than an ACME anvil over the past two weeks, which stands in stark contrast to what I am seeing in the bonds market so the jury is still out whether or not we are looking at some bifurcation here (strange things happen sometimes) or if risk is being improperly handicapped. If it is the latter then we may see another Gamestop type situation unfold in the near term future – if it’s the former then retail traders are about to get a wedgie of biblical proportions.
A longtime subscriber wrote me the other day thanking me for the opportunity to grab $TLRY right before it kicked into short squeeze mode and exploded higher. In his words: “Not sure if you’ve seen but $TLRY short squeeze is in full blow status. It’s now pre market at 65ish. The only reason I got into it was because I followed your Short Squeeze setup. I got in at 22.61!! I only had a small position, but it’s going to pay for the cost of the strategy probably about 3000%! And it was a textbook entry on your system.”
So my wife comes running to me a little over a week ago with that determined look on her face which immediately tells me that I’m in big trouble. “Mole, drop everything you do. We’ve got to buy silver! A LOT of silver!” No she doesn’t call me Mole but it’s my story and I’m sticking with it. Anyway, I immediately realize that I better tread carefully now. “Why is that again, my dear?” I ask innocently. She puts her hands on her hips, rolls her eyes, and retorts: “Well duuhhh, EVERYONE is talking about it right now – it’s going to explode higher!”
An old friend wrote me over the weekend asking whether or not it was finally time to back up the truck and short the heck out of this market. My response to him basically boiled down to ‘never step in front of a speeding freight train’ – however true to form I did provide him with a few valuable pointers. Which I thought may actually make for a good post, so if you happen to currently suffer form bearish inclinations I suggest you put down your mobile enslavement gadget and pay attention.
Just ask the Fed and the answer should be ‘how many trillion would you need’? Which why it’s a bit puzzling that the old greenback actually seems to be bottoming out right now and may even be getting ready to put the squeeze on all those degenerate Euro fanboyz. As you can imagine the thought of not being taunted by my local ATM anymore fills me with much glee. But in the context of the overall market situation we’ve got a few charts to review. Let’s get to work.
So a funny thing happened on the way to Wall Street last week. A rabid rabble of Robinhood retail rats on Reddit took advantage of a perceived market inefficiency in Gamestop (GME) and decided it would be a fun idea to drive up the stock and in the process stick it to the ‘man’ as an extra bonus. As you would expect it didn’t take long until all hell broke loose, for the high priests of finance don’t enjoy seeing their sacred privileges challenged. So they did what any self respecting incumbent would do: They decided to make a phone call…