I’m going to give you the quick and dirty on what matters this Friday. Price always matters of course but since we’re heading into a quadruple witching after two weeks of sideways churn institutional traders are now faced with a dilemma.
If this market is freaking you out a little right now you are in very good company. Yes I’m talking about myself of course but my lack of modesty comes with a disclaimer: Unlike most of the muppets drawing lines on charts I have evidence to back it up whereas the retail brigade is eternally focused on the rear view mirror, a.k.a. historical price or volatility.
One single overarching characteristic that separates seasoned traders from all of the noobs and spectators is that they have grown to be a lot less reactive to market events. This applies equally to large and sudden moves to the up- or downside. The market has a knack for pressing our collective buttons but once you’ve been around the block a few times you start to see a pattern and like a seasoned poker player you begin to recognize a few tell-tale signs that monkey business may be afoot.
Convict Scott here. Alt season is upon us, praise all the various Gods. I’m generally happy with 20%-30% a year in my “real trading”… but 20%-30% a week is absolutely possible during alt season. So how do we know it’s time to bank some serious coin?
Crypto suddenly slipped off the plate earlier this week after dancing around the magic $50k mark. Fortunately our system kept us in the strongest altcoins which were the least affected and are already bouncing back strongly. Let’s kick things off with a proper post-mortem of what happened and where we’re heading next.
The only silver lining of the global COVID-19 epidemic from my perspective was that it forced the city of Valencia, which we have called home for the past nine years, to cancel its annual Las Fallas celebrations. This happened twice in a row, first in March of 2020 and then again in March of 2021.
I have never made two bones about the fact that picking market tops or bottoms is a hare-brained exercise in futility. It’s for retail jackasses who enjoy racing downhill in oversized shopping carts. That said, in my never ending quest for market domination I may have come across something that may actually have some use for you chronic BTFD addicts.
A funny thing happened on the way to the recent Federal Reserve board meeting. U.S. treasury yields fell despite the latest policy meeting minutes showing that it was preparing to taper bond purchases before the end 2021. Apparently after years of dangling the specter of a more hawkish stance market vigilantes are finally prepared to call the Fed’s bluff. As the saying goes: Don’t ever bullshit a bullshitter.
Diminishing returns, also called the law of diminishing returns, describes the phenomenon when increasing production or an increase in effort results in progressively smaller, i.e. diminishing, increases in output or results.
It has become my sincere belief that the worst market environment for retail traders in fact are low volatility bull markets. Yes you read that right: NOT high volatility bear or endless sideways markets – it’s low volatility bull markets that wears the most on them.