Last week the stock market suddenly tripped over its own feet and landed on its face. This came a bit as a shock to many participants who over the past year became conditioned to a uni-directional market exceeding one ATH after the other. Of course what happens on an initial leg down rarely matters, what does however is the follow up, so let’s talk about that.
Cognitive dissonance seems to have evolved from a temporary phenomenon to a national pastime. Volatility continues to be pumped in the back months while the SPX is wiggling its way from one all time high to the next. If the equities market is starting to look like one giant bubble to you then you’re surely not alone.
It’s all over the news. The U.S. housing bubble, the stock market bubble, and now the crypto market bubble. In fact since the onset of the 21st century we have seemingly stumbled from one market bubble to the next.
I have been perusing the financial MSM over the past few days and beyond all the usual hyperbole and guesswork as to what the Fed may or may not decide to do there is one thing they all share in common: A total lack of consideration or care as to the long term implications of an exploding Fed balance sheet and an inability or unwillingness to draw correlations to the massive jump in inflation that consumers in and outside of the U.S. are increasingly experiencing. So basically, business as usual!
October is behind us and despite being infested with termites and cockroaches the house still appears to be standing. Historically speaking we ought to now be heading straight into the most productive earnings season of the year. Of course 2021 – like its preceding year – has not been a regular year. Nevertheless the stats are the stats, so let’s get on with it: