Good morning people of the financial galaxy.. It’s a lovely gray and snowy day here in Chicago. We haven’t had much snow yet this winter and it’s been warm(er), which is kind of a bummer for me. Many of the local ski mountains have had crappy conditions with the warmer weather. By crappy, I mean icy which turns all runs into double black diamonds as the sun starts setting in the afternoon when it’s way up in the mid 30s.
Good morning top dog traders of the Evil Speculator domain of the internet. I’m sipping my bullet proof decaf cafe’ this morning after I spent some time putting together my tunes for my DJ set at Afrika Burn this year. AfrikaBurn, South Africa’s sanctioned version of Burning Man, takes place about 6 hours outside of Cape Town in the middle of the African desert in late April. It’ll be my first experience living from a make shift home in a Backie which is the South African equivalent of a U-Haul. Continue reading
If I could have a penny for every setup I felt enthusiastic about and that invariably blew up in my face I would be… well, a lot richer than I am. To be honest when it comes to picking juicy entries off a chart I rank about average. What may set me apart from the rest, and what has helped me survive in a wide range of market conditions over the years was learning to overcome my instincts and engage in setups that scared the heck out of me.
All political and social drama notwithstanding dirty capitalist pigs like us have been doing rather well throughout 2019. So the big question going into 2020 is whether or not we are finally ‘due’ for a large scale market correction upon which we are finally ready to embrace the new socialist utopia lurking at the horizon. Don’t ask me because I’d probably the first one in line being handed a cigarette plus a blindfold and as such I may be somewhat biased.
The teens are over and done with and we’re now heading straight into the roaring twenties. I know it’s supposed to be hip to be all cynical and black pilled these days; but let me be among the first to buck this nauseating trend and predict that it’s going to be an awesome decade for anyone serious about being successful – and most importantly the very few willing to put in the work.
I’m pretty ecstatic this morning! And although the prospect of a looming EOY holiday week may play some part, the main reason for my emotional exuberance is that I’m putting the finishing touches on a project that combined has taken me nearly 2 years to bring to fruition. It’s been a monster effort that launched in early 2018 has cost me literally 5000+ man-hours of hard work to get to this point.
This is the first time I recall a VIX Buy Signal following a Sell Signal in such short succession. Can it be trusted? Did I miss the pre-Santa-Rally dip? Is it too late to load up on long positions? So many nagging questions but as usual Mike’s got you covered:
Most retail rats launch their trading endeavors (calling it a ‘career’ would be a vast exaggeration) by voluntarily checking themselves into a financial industry indoctrination camp where they are force fed a corrosive diet of nonsense such as magic candle patterns, Elliott Wave theory, moon phases, solar cycles, Bradley Turn Dates, Hindenburg Omens, etc.
Once again, the ability to code is trumping all other skills, again lending credence to the “learn to code” joke that came off as so harsh to the liberal social media elite that it wound up getting people banned from Twitter.
But the adage is holding true in the bond market, according to Bloomberg, where quants are now striking it rich with the ability to code. The bond market is getting “wired up by systematic players” and firms are scrambling to scoop up the best talent.
Hedge funds are stealing each others’ talent and trying to entice employees with robust compensation packages. For instance, credit-quant clients at Selby Jennings in London are offering annual compensation of $400,000 to a Ph.D. graduate with five years’ experience as a desk strategist.
I’d wager that the majority of retail traders chose to listen to the onslaught of bearish siren calls peddled in the MSM over the past two months, once again causing them to miss out on yet another massive push to the upside.
As we’ve now advanced all the way into new all time highs you may wonder if at least an obligatory shake out may be in sight. Let’s see what my market momentum charts have to say about it.
Let’s start with Mr. VIX – despite all time highs the 12 mark has yet to be broken and IMO the bulls require a drop < the 11.8 mark in order for the rising trendline above to be broken.
There are of course no iron clad rules that were handed down to Moses about any of this. But it has become clear now that we have built a new IV base over the past two years and investor confidence is needed in order to abandon the high volatility market regime that has reigned since early 2018.