I promised the Mrs. no work and no posts until January, but a situation has arisen that is worth breaking my promise and risking to invoke her holy wrath. Besides I already spend the past few days coding on a project – which to my shame is my definition of R&R these days. So I’ll better be quick as to not test my luck.
When I hit the gym – albeit mostly at home throughout 2020 – I prefer to get into ‘the zone’ and then hit it hard. There’s no chatting, no checking emails, no social media, and the minimum amount of distractions possible (unless they involve some smashing curves clad in lululemon pants – I’m only human). Detaching myself from my daily routine usually involves cranking up my extensive metal playlists on Spotify or at least some classic rock ‘n roll.
As an expat living abroad I command a permanent front row seat perspective on what happens with the U.S. Dollar. And it’s for no other reason than the fact that I earn in Dollars but mostly spend in Euros. Which means that the EUR/USD exchange rate in particular is something I am confronted with constantly, whether or not I actually intend to.
Every once in a while I catch a day where pretty much everything I touch devolves into a floating dumpster fire. I will spare you the gory details but by all intents and purposes today is such a day and I’m in a pretty foul mood. However it is those days that really test your mettle not just as a trader but also as a professional in your respective domain and human being in general. So do you throw in the towel and call it quits? Not on my watch!
Whether you like it or not, most would agree that the German language has a good number of very cool words which are not only difficult to translate into other languages but also hold special meaning. Schadenfreude is a popular one that even English speakers seem to have widely adopted over the years. Blitzkrieg is one that is associated with Germany’s WW2 ambitions which speaks to the country’s ability to exert ruthless efficiency which however ended in total disaster.
Don’t you hate it when someone you know is proven to be right about something and then keeps on rubbing it in by saying ‘I told ya so’? Well, I hate to be that guy today (actually I don’t) but heck… I TOLD YA SO! What am I droning on about again? Implied volatility of course – what did you think?
Have you ever noticed that the mainstream media, a.k.a. schmucks for hire who write about stuff they have no single clue about, will always start hyping powerful market rallies once they’ve already run their course? And you don’t have to look very far for recent examples. I give you gold, Bitcoin, the Euro, and of course equities. Usually the move is at least half done by the time you start reading about it. The age old conundrum for retail rats of course is whether or not it’s time to fade the crowd or to jump on the bullish bandwagon.
Strike it up to my Austrian upbringing but I absolutely love the month of December. Putting aside COVID epidemics and the current social upheaval across the West for a moment, it still ranks high on my favorites months of the year list, right after April and – of course – lovely May. And not just for the usual reasons like the Advent Season, the anticipation of Christmas Day, New Year’s Eve, batches of Glühwein (mulled wine), snuggly movie nights with the Mrs. in front of a crackling fire. It’s also my favorite month when it comes to my biggest passion, which of course is trading the markets.
Biden’s confirmation of Janet Yellen as the Fed chairwoman 2.0 pretty much sealed the fate of the U.S. Dollar and I expect it to be renamed the ‘U.S. Weimar’ just before its replacement by monopoly money which it appears to be more resilient against haphazard inflation. But to be honest a crashing Dollar is par for the course for a nation that is incapable of holding a presidential election without certified results over one month later.
Everything but the U.S. Dollar seems to be ramping higher these days. Bitcoin is back over $19k with HODLERs projecting it to be at $30k sometime next year. The smugness in the crypto waterholes I monitor is literally oozing out of everyone’s pores. Continue reading