You’re Next!

If you are one of those people who are chronically allergic to not just Bitcoin but crypto in general then I bet you’ve been feeling pretty damn smug over the last week. Yes, thanks to the Mr. Asbergers Impersonate the entire crypto market was taken to the woodshed in a matter of days. But before you fall in love with your newly acquired your super human market reading abilities here’s just a teeny weeny detail you may have forgotten about:

I don’t really follow this cat but I honestly could not have put it any better.

And there’s this little tidbit – let’s zoom in a little. Altcoin season began in week #1 of 2021 and in the course of five months produced over 1600% in profits. After a one week correction it’s down to ‘only’ 600%.

I frankly don’t know how I am going to live with myself.

As I’ve pointed out repeatedly. You can’t expect to enjoy 1600% growth in five months and not run into a violent retracement at some point. If you think you do, then pinch yourself. Remember TINSTAAFL.

Not to belittle the fact that this is a gut shot for anyone who bought BTC or ETH near the top.

I should know because both Scott and I did – quite a significant amount of it.

And then we bought more at 39k and again at 33k yesterday.

Walk the walk so to say.

So what’s going to happen next in crypto?

And the answer is clear.

What would fuck everyone over is a choppy trading range.

And trading alts in a range, with transaction costs, would be devastating. Which is why our system just switched us into ETH mode, which I’m overjoyed about.

Everyone is expecting a powerful rally OR a new bear market… Just check the previous comment section right here on EvilSpec.

So BY DEFINITION the highest probability is both those ideas being completely wrong.

Now do not think that sticking in the safe cuddly world of equities is going to be a cake walk moving forward.

Quite to the contrary actually. As a matter of fact I’m seeing alarm lights flashing red hot all across the board. More on that further below.

But you don’t have to be a seasoned market analyst to see that the character of the tape has changed profoundly over the past two weeks. On a line chart we’ve gone nearly nowhere. But you could drive an F-150 through those daily gaps on the SPX.

But here’s is the part where it gets really ugly:

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  • Mike
  • a couple of years ago

About the Author

Hey there, I am one of the founding members of Red Pill Quants. I used to work as a systems engineer in Silicon Valley until I left the industry in 2008 to become a full time quant trader. It's been fun ever since.