Bitcoin Is Being Annoying

Just a quick crypto update since my workload has been relentless since I got back from vacation. Bitcoin is exhibiting classic trading range behavior. Up-down-up-down. Choppy, hard to read. Pressing all of our emotional buttons.

It looks like it’s going to achieve escape velocity, aaaand then doesn’t.

Fucking annoying is what it is.

Nevertheless: the structure of the bull market appears intact, what’s going on is that there are a lot of cross currents.

Long term holders are continuing to accumulate during the dip, adding substantially to their positions.

And this is the average age of coins being sold, you can see that it’s short term traders who are selling, and getting shorter all the time.

Translation: Weak hands are exiting the market.

So we have three highly unusual cross currents:

Bagholders trapped in altcoins at higher prices.

Short term traders heavily underwater and trying to hold on.

And strong hand whales accumulating coins from piking short term traders.

This is probably going to go on for a few more weeks.

Think of it like a prize fight in the 14th round. It’s about endurance and willingness to endure pain.

Once selling pressure OR buying pressure is exhausted, the market will break out strongly in that direction.

Its a good news / bad news situation.

Every day that goes on the odds favor a bullish breakout. In statistical terms the influence of the previous trend down fades after 20 bars.

So thats good. Longer wait, higher probability of it going up.

But longer wait… sucks ass. Not gonna lie.

BTW, this situation isn’t at all unusual. Seen it many times.

Trading in general is a counter-intuitive activity for most people and a bull market correction in particular will be pressing all of your cognitive buttons.

Remember, markets climb the wall of worry and descend the slope of hope.

This isn’t the slope of hope. Why? Because the big guys are clearly BUYING.

Think LONG term. We aren’t in this for short term gains or losses. It’s not that we didn’t know crypto was volatile.

I hope this helps.

  • Mike
  • a couple of years ago

About the Author

Hey there, I am one of the founding members of Red Pill Quants. I used to work as a systems engineer in Silicon Valley until I left the industry in 2008 to become a full time quant trader. It's been fun ever since.